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Verified Person
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问货币的挺多,自己简单说下个人逻辑: 1、下图,可以直接看出来ECB当前的困境,通胀那么高,基准利率还是负的,这些年想搞日本化的MMT,实际上已经算是日本化了。 2、欧元区不少国家贸易逆差,连老牌制造业强国德国都出现了几十年没有出现的逆差(虽然不大)但值得玩味。 3、还有那些高负债的南欧几头猪。经济差的一比。 4、俄乌冲突给欧元区带来的麻烦,资本持续外流是无疑的,投资人对欧元区经济信心持续下降。 欧元对美元贬值毫无招架之力!加之美联储货币政策正常化,欧元烂透了。另外烂的就是日元和英镑。 货币建议大家右侧交易,也就是等美元指数见顶,或者欧元区经济好转。不然就不碰。

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