CIBC Hong Kong flows...from Smart Jet

09 Jun 2022, 16:32 · Views 214

CIBC Hong Kong flows

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Smart Jet

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‼️AUDUSD update, expecting a lot more downside fundamentally on this but shorter term it’s about to dip into decent support and a pullback feels appropriate so taking profit here at market price and then we will look for more USD longs after a decent pullback‼️

Smart Jet

Morning traders, I'm seeing a big beautiful bearish engulfing on the daily on GBPUSD, and that I think will be enough to get me into shorts over the next couple of sessions Yes, currently we should expect a bit more Dollar strength heading into the FOMC next week, the current context feels a mix of risk off sentiment with also some hawkish expectations for the upcoming rate decision, a 25bps is sealed in but now there is some sentiment growing for even another 25bps hike at the June rate decision, NOT sure about that because between now and then the pressure on banks could resurface but we will see Either way, my focus remains on USD longs at the moment, open to changing my mind quickly if the PCE on Friday prints soft, but for now, I will be looking for GBPUSD shorts near 1.24800, no pending order placed yet

Smart Jet

Morning traders, the plan with the FOMC today is simple, we wait for the event, we listen to Powell carefully, and if he keeps the door open for another 25bps hike in June we jump into some Dollar longs at least until the NFP on Friday, if he doesn't, maybe we can get in some USDJPY shorts or most likely we will just wait for the next important fundamental development that will likely be the NFP on Friday Anyway, I think that Powell will keep the option for another 25bps hike so I would be leaning into USD longs today BUT Goldmans and others are all calling for the FED to signal a pause in hikes today, so I'm against the consensus in this view but that's also what makes this opportunity attractive, I mean, if Powell signals a pause the Dollar doesn't flinch much because that's expected already, if Powell signals another rate hike the Dollar strengthens quite a bit because that scenario is NOT priced

Smart Jet

Morning traders, with the CPI everywhere I look I see notes about the likelihood of a strong print, Goldmans is also expecting a number a tiny bit above expectations so we are geared in that direction but obviously when the consensus is geared one way the risk is that the number doesn't meet the already high expectations triggering an unwind of positions So, even if the likelihood is USD strength we don't want to get into the event too long the Dollar, meaning that we will likely adjust the recently added AUDUSD short before the CPI later, then once we see the numbers and the price action around it we can start looking at some medium term direction across the board

Smart Jet

Morning traders, it's a bank holiday today in Europe so it's a quiet start to the week but currently as I'm watching the charts I feel it might be the right technical moment to jump into EURUSD shorts over the next couple of sessions, yes, Friday looks a lot like classic month end flows and those usually always fade as the new month starts, so we might enter the trade over the next couple of sessions Other than that, we have pending order to short AUDUSD from 0.68000 target at 0.62000 stop at 0.68400, will be back with the latest from Goldmans in a minute

Smart Jet