Morning traders, two...from Smart Jet

Morning traders, two tiny but definitely annoying losses on NZDCAD, while as expected stocks were heavy NZDCAD managed to detach from sentiment and stay bid, I guess we picked the wrong horse to trade the "risk off" as it seems the classic CHF and JPY took the spotlight as they regained their safe haven statuses Something worth keeping in mind, going forward further stocks (S&P500) downside may be best traded via JPY or CHF longs, taking notes of that, in the meantime speaking about the S&P500 (and crypto) we continue with a bearish bias expecting new lows going forward, the picture remains the same, bearish as long as the FED says so, and they are saying it loudly, as such our FX trades will be also biased towards further "risk off"

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Morning traders, haven't pulled the trigger on GBPUSD shorts yet nor any other Dollar long, probably I'm being a bit too prudent but I feel the timing and market structure is not as good as it should for USD longs yet, arguably the market is also lacking catalysts to get a clear direction, GDP today is unlikely to be much of a market mover but PCE tomorrow without a doubt, I keep monitoring for an entry, also keeping in mind it's month end so we could see some random month end flows over the next two days, in other words, keeping it cautious, we have a fundamentally packed week next week with the FOMC and ECB rate decisions so no need to rush into trades right now Other than that, still standing ready to take profit on the BTC longs, if I see price above 30k I will be VERY tempted to do so, will send out a full email note with more details on why we are taking profit when we do so

Smart Jet

Morning traders, the plan with the FOMC today is simple, we wait for the event, we listen to Powell carefully, and if he keeps the door open for another 25bps hike in June we jump into some Dollar longs at least until the NFP on Friday, if he doesn't, maybe we can get in some USDJPY shorts or most likely we will just wait for the next important fundamental development that will likely be the NFP on Friday Anyway, I think that Powell will keep the option for another 25bps hike so I would be leaning into USD longs today BUT Goldmans and others are all calling for the FED to signal a pause in hikes today, so I'm against the consensus in this view but that's also what makes this opportunity attractive, I mean, if Powell signals a pause the Dollar doesn't flinch much because that's expected already, if Powell signals another rate hike the Dollar strengthens quite a bit because that scenario is NOT priced

Smart Jet

Morning traders, today what I'm mostly interested in is comments from FED speakers, we can interpret the CPI however we want but what matters is how the FED interprets it in order to decide their next move, so listening for comments on whether for them that's progress or whether they feel they need to do more, there is a speaker today and few others tomorrow so listening very closely Other than that, BoE rate decision today is one to watch too, we have no GBP exposure at the moment so it doesn't particularly interest us but Goldmans has been alerting about a possible hawkish outcome out of this event that could lead to GBP strength across the board, just something to be aware of in case you have any GBP trade running

Smart Jet