Highlighting the COT...from InvestMacro

Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising of bullish bets in the Canadian ‘Loonie’ dollar currency futures contracts. CAD speculators raised their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past four-week time-frame, CAD bets have improved by a total of +26,166 contracts, going from -4,940 net positions on March 22nd to +21,226 net positions this week. These gains have brought this week’s speculator level to the most bullish position since July 13th of 2021, a span of forty weeks. This recent improvement in Loonie sentiment has been helped out by the hike in interest rates by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC recently pushed its key interest rate higher by 50 basis points on April 13th and has in the past few days hinted that more interest rate rises were to come. The recent inflation numbers out of Canada were above expectations (6.7 percent) and according to Bloomberg, market participants have pushed their odds to 100 percent for another 50 basis point hike in June. #USD/CAD#

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3-Year Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (69 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores. On the downside, the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (1 percent), the Australian Dollar (4 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). Strength Statistics: US Dollar Index (0.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.5 percent) EuroFX (27.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (33.6 percent) British Pound Sterling (82.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (76.6 percent) Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.5 percent) Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.1 percent) Canadian Dollar (16.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.9 percent) Australian Dollar (4.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.9 percent) New Zealand Dollar (39.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.3 percent) Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (99.2 percent) Brazilian Real (30.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (45.8 percent) Bitcoin (68.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (50.2 percent)

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Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (4,739 contracts) with Silver (4,077 contracts), Gold (3,145 contracts) and Palladium (650 contracts) also showing positive weeks. The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-2,495 contracts) with Steel (-201 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

InvestMacro

Speculators drop Swiss Franc bets for 9th week to most bearish since 2019 Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline in the speculator’s positioning for the Swiss franc. Large speculative Swiss franc (CHF) currency positions fell this week by a modest -402 net contracts but have now dropped for a ninth consecutive week. The speculator bets have also fallen for the tenth time out of the past eleven weeks as well – for a total 11-week decrease of -18,632 contracts.

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