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美国5月非农数据料对汇市产生一锤定音影响,但行情动能或已被部分透支; ① 美元指数在周四美国ADP就业数据与非制造业ISM数据双双向好后录得跳升,一举突破了30日均线切入位的关键阻力,这也使得周五稍后将会出炉的5月非农就业报告的细节更加受到投资者瞩目,而这很可能一锤定音决定汇市后市的走势趋势方向; ② 但分析师指出,隔夜美元指数跳涨并升破关键阻力位的现况,事实上已经提前构筑起了了汇价中期见底的趋势。在此背景下,即使非农就业数据如4月份的数据一般继续逊色,美元也仅仅只会录得“膝跳反射”式的短暂下跌,因为在其他各项数据都向好的背景下,观察者会更加坚信非农数据不佳是因为统计模型发生了错误,或者继续受到失业金申领政策的拖累,而这些状况在之后进入下半年后迟早都会得到弥补修正; ③ 不过,鉴于周四的可观涨幅也已经透支了行情上行动能,因而,反过来如果非农数据一如预期向好,美指也不会录得更大幅度跳升。因为数据表现要转化为货币政策前景的变化,仍需先经过美联储官员的释读肯定,而日内稍后美联储大批官员将会在“噤声期”开始前的最后发言窗口集中发表政策言论,这将在非农数据出路后转移走市场的更多注意力

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