欧元兑美元升向1.20或可高抛；瑞士信贷预计欧元兑美元仍将温和下行，而利差进一步扩大的趋势将是不对称的，预计第二季度欧元将交投于1.14-1.21，升向1.20可能会逢高卖出；在3月例会上，欧洲央行表示将以远高于今年头几个月的速度执行紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)，这和美联储的明确意图是一致的，也即压平收益率并抑制美国国债收益率上升带来的上行压力；第二季度欧元兑美元的目标1.15，只有在欧盟疫苗接种明显增加和欧洲复苏基金支出计划惊人的情况下，欧元才会持续性反弹，包括欧元走软在内的宽松货币环境，推动欧元区股市走强和通胀预期上升，将鼓励欧洲央行继续执行当前的计划，尤其是在基本面经济依然脆弱、容易出现封锁风险、缺乏美国式财政推动的情况下；欧元兑美元隐含波动率仍然较低，而风险逆转偏斜为中性，暗示当前的外汇水平与市场的不安情绪无关
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