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美元的强劲之势料难延续至下半年;大华银行认为,过去一个季度美债收益率跃升推动美元指数走强,技术面也凸显出本周收于93.40上方的风险将极大地增加进一步上涨至94.30的概率,美国总统拜登即将出台的大规模基础设施刺激计划可能释放出强大的财政力量,将增加美元的不确定性,短期内财政政策的推动对美元有利,因为锚定了美国的增长并加剧了通胀担忧,然而拜登可能选择以更高的税收或更多的美国国债供应为大规模刺激计划提供资金,从长期来看,这两种选择都可能对美元产生不利影响;总体上依然认为美元自今年年初以来的强势可能不会延续至2021年下半年,全球经济增长前景更加靓丽意味着主要货币和亚洲货币中的周期性和风险货币将重新站稳脚跟,并对美元重新走强,具体来说,仍然认为坡元和大多数亚洲外汇将在下半年重新呈现温和的强势

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