外汇交易原则一：不计成败，只看胜算——计算期望
建立交易系统时，要考虑的是长期的赢利，而非短期的成败。
交易系统中的胜算，叫做期望收益。历史表现是推测未来期望收益的依据。
推测过程有三步：
①查一查，这个系统最初设定的买入价和止损退出价是多少。
②看一看，在最初的价格设定下，最终的交易量是多少，最后得到的收益是多少。
③算一算风险投入，用买入价与止损价的差额，乘以最终的交易量。
最后，得到历史胜算，即未来的期望收益，用最终收益，除以风险投入。只要期望收益为正，这个交易系统就值得坚持。有失败，有逆境，莫抛弃，莫放弃。
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