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美国财政货币双宽松年内仍是定局,美元指数仍有下行空间;① 美元指数在周二日内录得回落,在欧市开盘之际跌幅加剧。东京三菱日联银行指出,一方面,全球投资者对疫苗应用前景继续乐观拉动了非美高风险货币走强,令避险美元遭到抛售,另一方面,投资者对美国未来政策前景予以进一步解读之后也认为,美元货币供应量在未来进一步增加的前景仍是大势所趋;② 该行指出,拜登政府把防疫支出项目扩展到1.9万亿美元的行动,将只是更多财政宽松措施的第一步,而在前美联储主席耶伦执掌美国财政部之后,财政政策将与货币政策更加协调一致,美联储也会心照不宣维持甚至加大力度收购消化财政部增发的债务,于是在此背景下美债收益率上行空间仍将受到压制,这意味着美元汇价进一步回升的空间也寥寥无几;③ 在此状况下,美元兑欧元等主流非美货币在短期受到政治风险消退拉动而走强之后,年内剩余时间仍会陷入下行趋势。美国官员口头上声称不采取弱势美元政策,也不代表美元汇价行情实际上就不会走弱

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