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美元兑日元一个月目标为103;丹麦丹斯克银行仍预期日元将进一步走强,美元兑日元一个月目标为103.00,三个月目标为102.00,十二个月目标为100.00,美元兑日元要升至110,需要美国名义利率和/或全球商品价格出现重大波动,然而石油市场供过于求仍然构成相关因素,原油上行风险有限,从而限制日元下行风险(日本是净进口国),目前预期10年期美债收益率不会升破1%;全球维持避险情绪,大宗商品和国内财政应对措施使得美元兑日元维持震荡走势,值得注意的是,通胀预期上升和原油价格稳定的情况下,美国名义利率基本保持不变,反过来,日元的焦点是“亚洲因素”,而实际利率下降利空美元,因此上述因素利空美元,利好日元

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