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意大利政治危机对汇市影响极有限,欧元兑美元年内料交投于1.20-25区间: ① 东京三菱日联银行的分析师表示,虽然意大利政局近期再度陷入动荡,但在欧盟政治与财政环境在新冠疫情爆发之后已经今非昔比,因而该国即使政局进一步动荡,乃至重新举行大选导致持极端民粹政见的政治派别再次上台,都不会改变其在财政上有求于欧盟强力援助的格局,因而,此事件对欧元汇价走势仅有微不足道的心理表层影响,不会持续撼动行情大方向; ② 东京三菱日联因此指出,欧元汇价大尺度走势仍取决于欧洲央行与美联储政策对比,以及经济走向前景。而眼下的形式显示欧洲央行与美联储政策方向在2021年料大体上进一步趋同,都会在疫情消退后经济大环境向好的背景下小心翼翼地撤出超额宽松措施,在此背景下,欧元汇价大概率将进入横盘运行之中,年内大多数时间将交投于1.20-1.25区间之中

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