2021年初欧元兑美元或回落至1.20；荷兰合作银行表示，圣诞节假期前交易清淡和过度拥挤可能是本周欧元兑美元回落的原因，预计汇价将在2021年前几个月回落至1.20，然后在12个月内重回1.23，考虑到今年德国和美国长期利率之间的实际利率息差有利于欧元，欧元兑美元在2021年可能进一步上行，也就是说，随着糟糕经济数据的出现，欧元兑美元在第一季度有回调至1.20的空间，然后在12个月内升至1.23；如果欧洲央行在中期成功提高通胀预期，美国和欧元区之间的相对实际利率可能会重新调整，利好美元，然而最近通货膨胀保值债券的流入表明，美国市场对通胀的担忧更为明显；如果欧元区通胀仍顽固地保持在低位，美国名义收益率的上升也可能重置实际息差，鉴于美联储的指引，也可能还有一段距离
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