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2021年美元料延续下跌之势;荷兰合作银行预计,2021年美元料延续下跌之势,自12月3日以来欧元兑美元一直处于盘整阶段,美联储12月利率决议将提供新的推力,至少市场预期美联储将对前瞻性指引提供更多明朗性;由于美国经济复苏失去动能,且新的财政刺激计划仍在等待美国国会的批准,本周美联储可能忽视前瞻性指引,不过核心观点是美联储将等待直至围绕大选的关键问题得以解决,且在采取进一步的政策刺激之前,更多的财政刺激已经准备就绪;市场做多欧元,表明欧元兑美元仍有结利的空间,因为德国最新的封锁限制将引发新的担忧,经济数据在明年改善之前可能会进一步恶化,虽然风险偏好情绪恶化或导致欧元兑美元在2021年第一季度跌向1.18,但将其预期小幅上修,12个月预期目前为1.23,此前预期为1.20

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