#2020美国大选倒计时# 我更看好拜登。目前民调显示拜登在几个主要摇摆州都是领先的，特朗普在2016年大获全胜的摇摆州也岌岌可危。16年的民调结果最后证明离谱，其中有一个很大的失误在于当时的民调公司未能很好地计算关键摇摆州中学历不太高的选民票数，而这就是特朗普的优势之一。四年间大多数民调公司不断调整调查方法，做到了纠偏。所以我觉得目前的民调结果是可参考的，且美国民众也不会如4年前一样轻敌到票都不去投。当然一切牵扯到特朗普，不确定性就开始翻倍，拜登的优势还不足以一锤定音，从情感上投他一票吧。
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