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全球风险利空消息集聚,美元兑日元后市或跌向100关口;① 美元兑日元在本周初受全球风险情绪升温影响跌至半年低位104关口,此后在 美元指数走强的带动下,汇价略有反弹收复105关口。但法国兴业银行的分析师指出,未来日元汇价料仍进一步走强,美元兑日元跌向100关口乃是大势所趋;② 法兴的分析师指出,近日以来全球股市走势低迷的状况事实上对避险日元汇价构成利多,与此同时,欧洲疫情再度爆发的场景也令全球资金转移阵地,虽然短线美元走强,但是在美国选情不确定性持续升温,未来变数多多的状况下,已经完成了政府顺利换届的日本才是投资者心目中理想的资金避风港,这意味着日元汇价仍有走强的空间;③ 同时,日本央行似乎也能够容忍美元兑日元交投于105关口下方的状况持续存在,这意味着在其心目中,100整数关口才可能是触发日本央行入市干预汇率的真正底线。在此状况下,法兴看空美元兑日元在年底之际跌至100关口,但却认为进一步下探空间料会较为受限

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