昨天一天读完塔勒布的著作《随机漫步的傻瓜》,我最深的感触就是明白我们时刻受到随机性的愚弄而不自知。
很多随机性的结果却觉得是规律性的,觉得好像找到了圣杯或者找到了什么绝世高手,其实只不过是幸存者偏差而已。这之后往往最会吃大亏,这种随机性中的规律性持续的越长往往事后跌的越惨。
而最让人抓狂的是,你永远无法彻底摆脱随机性的愚弄,我们唯一可以掌握的优势可能就是自己知道自己的弱点,并加以克服。而别人不知道而已。
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