Core consumer prices in Tokyo’s Ku-area rose 2.5% year-on-year in September 2025, matching August’s pace and falling short of expectations for an uptick to 2.8%. Despite the miss, inflation stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, fueling speculation of another rate hike later this year. Minutes from the BOJ’s July meeting showed policymakers were prepared to keep tightening if the economy and prices evolve as projected. At its September meeting, the BOJ left rates unchanged but faced two dissents, signaling further hikes may be imminent. Officials have largely paused the cycle amid concerns over the impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy.
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