BoE Likely to Maintain Rates

The Bank of England is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 4% during its September 2025 meeting, following a 25 bps cut in August, as it navigates slow growth alongside still-elevated inflation. August CPI came in at 3.8%, matching July’s 18-month high, with inflation forecast to reach 4% in September and remain above the 2% target until spring 2027. While wage growth has slowed to 4.8% for basic pay, the labor market continues to exert upward pressure on prices. UK economic growth remains weak, with just 0.2% expansion in the three months to July. The BoE is likely to maintain its cautious pace on quantitative tightening, slowing the £100 billion annual gilt unwind amid market volatility; holdings have fallen from £875 billion in 2022 to £558 billion. Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled that the rate path is “open,” and polls suggest the Monetary Policy Committee may reduce the gilt unwind to around £67.5 billion.