US nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 75K in August 2025, broadly in line with July’s 73K gain, underscoring signs of a cooling labor market. Employers remain cautious on hiring amid ongoing uncertainty over tariffs, trade, and immigration policies. The manufacturing sector is projected to lose 5K jobs, weighed down by a strike at Boeing, while federal employment is also expected to decline due to White House-driven spending cuts. Economists estimate the US needs to add 50K–75K jobs per month to keep pace with working-age population growth. At the same time, the unemployment rate is forecast to edge up to 4.3%, its highest level since 2021, from 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, matching July’s pace while the annual rate is seen falling to 3.7% from 3.9%.
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