August month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. The figures become all the more important as traders will be keen to observe how much employment damages Victoria’s lockdown did amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence.
Market consensus favors Employment Change to drop to -50.0K from +114.7K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to rise from 7.5% to 7.7%. Further, the Participation Rate may remain stagnant at 64.7%.
TD Securities expect a positive surprise from the data while saying,
Working off the ABS Weekly payroll series, we assume a 32k headline increase in employment. Even with lockdown in Victoria, we anticipate the participation rate to have increased as an easing of restrictions elsewhere is likely to have encouraged more people to look for work. An increase to 64.9% (from 64.7%) implies the unemployment rate rises to 7.6% (from 7.5%).
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
Considering the RBA’s recently measured statements, employment data may have a little bearing on the AUD/USD prices unless being drastically down. On the contrary, a positive surprise can take clues from the risk recovery and help the quote in marching further towards 0.7400.
Technically, the pair’s sustained trading beyond 21-day EMA, at 0.7261 now, directs the bulls towards the August 31 high of 0.7416 with the 0.7400 threshold acting as an intermediate halt. Additionally, an ascending trend line from July 14, currently around 0.7225, also acts as strong downside support.
Key Notes
Australian Employment Preview: Victoria’s lockdown taking its toll on employment
AUD/USD: Consolidates Fed-led losses near 0.7300, eyes Aussie jobs report
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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