Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 4 - 8 May, 2026 (GMT+8)
This week’s economic calendar is heavily concentrated around central bank decisions, inflation updates, and U.S. growth data. The week begins with the BoJ Interest Rate Decision and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, before moving into German CPI, the BoC Interest Rate Decision, and Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday.
The strongest market-moving window comes on Thursday, where traders will face a dense cluster of major events: the Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference, Eurozone CPI, BoE Interest Rate Decision, ECB Interest Rate Decision, U.S. GDP, and U.S. Core PCE Price Index. This creates a high-impact session for USD, EUR, GBP, gold, oil, and global risk sentiment. The week then ends with UK and U.S. manufacturing PMI data on Friday, giving traders a final read on business activity and economic momentum.
| Key highlights: |
🇦🇺 5 May, 12:30 - RBA Interest Rate Decision (May)
🇺🇸 5 May, 21:45 - Services PMI (Apr)
🇺🇸 5 May, 22:00 - New Home Sales (Mar)
🇺🇸 5 May, 22:00 - JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)
🇺🇸 5 May, 22:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
🇬🇧 6 May, 16:30 - Composite PMI (Apr)
🇬🇧 6 May, 16:30 - Services PMI (Apr)
🇺🇸 6 May, 20:15 - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
🇺🇸 6 May, 22:30 - Crude Oil Inventories
🇬🇧 7 May, 16:30 - Construction PMI (Apr)
🇺🇸 7 May, 20:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
🇬🇧 8 May, 14:00 - Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
🇬🇧 8 May, 20:20 - BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
🇺🇸 8 May, 20:30 - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr)
🇺🇸 8 May, 20:30 - Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
🇺🇸 8 May, 20:30 - Unemployment Rate (Apr)
🇺🇸 5 May, 21:45 - Services PMI (Apr)
🇺🇸 5 May, 22:00 - New Home Sales (Mar)
🇺🇸 5 May, 22:00 - JOLTS Job Openings (Mar)
🇺🇸 5 May, 22:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
🇬🇧 6 May, 16:30 - Composite PMI (Apr)
🇬🇧 6 May, 16:30 - Services PMI (Apr)
🇺🇸 6 May, 20:15 - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
🇺🇸 6 May, 22:30 - Crude Oil Inventories
🇬🇧 7 May, 16:30 - Construction PMI (Apr)
🇺🇸 7 May, 20:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
🇬🇧 8 May, 14:00 - Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
🇬🇧 8 May, 20:20 - BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
🇺🇸 8 May, 20:30 - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr)
🇺🇸 8 May, 20:30 - Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
🇺🇸 8 May, 20:30 - Unemployment Rate (Apr)
🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision and AUD Sensitivity
The week begins with the RBA Interest Rate Decision, with the rate forecast at 4.35%, higher than the previous 4.10%. Since markets are already expecting a rate hike, the actual reaction may depend more on the RBA’s statement and policy guidance than the rate decision itself.
A hawkish tone could support AUD, especially if the market prices in a higher terminal rate. However, if the RBA hikes but sounds cautious about future moves, AUD may face profit-taking after the decision. Reuters reported that 30 of 33 economists expected a 25 bps hike to 4.35%, while more than one-third expected rates to reach at least 4.60% or higher later in 2026.
The week begins with the RBA Interest Rate Decision, with the rate forecast at 4.35%, higher than the previous 4.10%. Since markets are already expecting a rate hike, the actual reaction may depend more on the RBA’s statement and policy guidance than the rate decision itself.
A hawkish tone could support AUD, especially if the market prices in a higher terminal rate. However, if the RBA hikes but sounds cautious about future moves, AUD may face profit-taking after the decision. Reuters reported that 30 of 33 economists expected a 25 bps hike to 4.35%, while more than one-third expected rates to reach at least 4.60% or higher later in 2026.
🇺🇸 U.S. Services PMI, JOLTS, and Early USD Direction
Tuesday’s U.S. data block will provide the first major read on U.S. economic momentum. Services PMI is forecast at 51.3, unchanged from the previous reading, while ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 53.8, slightly lower than the previous 54.0. Both readings remain above the 50 expansion level, but any downside surprise may suggest softer service-sector momentum.
At the same time, JOLTS Job Openings are forecast at 6.870M, slightly below the previous 6.882M. This will be closely watched because job openings give traders an early signal on labor demand before Friday’s NFP report. If services activity remains firm and job openings stay elevated, USD may find support through stronger growth and labor resilience expectations. If both weaken, traders may start pricing in a softer U.S. labor market ahead of Friday
🇬🇧 UK Composite PMI and Services PMI
Wednesday’s UK data will focus on Composite PMI and Services PMI, both forecast at 52, unchanged from the previous readings. Since the UK economy is highly service-driven, the services PMI will be especially important for GBP sentiment.
A stable reading above 50 suggests that UK business activity remains in expansion territory. This could support GBP if traders believe the BoE still has limited room to turn dovish too quickly. -
🇺🇸 ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, and NFP Positioning
The U.S. labor market will be the main theme of the week. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is forecast at 90K, higher than the previous 62K, while Initial Jobless Claims are forecast at 203K, above the previous 189K.
This creates a mixed setup before Friday’s NFP. A stronger ADP reading would suggest private-sector hiring remains stable, but higher jobless claims could indicate that labor conditions are gradually softening.
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories and Inflation Sentiment
Wednesday’s Crude Oil Inventories will be important for oil traders and inflation-sensitive markets. The previous reading showed a draw of -6.234M, which indicates stronger demand or tighter supply conditions.
A larger-than-expected inventory draw may support oil prices and revive inflation concerns, especially if energy prices remain elevated. This could indirectly support the USD through higher inflation expectations and reduced rate-cut expectations. On the other hand, a surprise inventory build may weigh on oil prices and reduce near-term inflation pressure.
🇬🇧 UK Construction PMI, Halifax House Price Index, and BoE Governor Bailey
Thursday’s UK Construction PMI is forecast at 46, slightly higher than the previous 45.6, but still below the 50 expansion level. This suggests the UK construction sector remains under pressure, even if there is a mild improvement.
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls, Wage Growth, and Unemployment Rate
Friday’s U.S. labor report is the most important event of the week. Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast at 73K, sharply lower than the previous 178K, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.30%. Average Hourly Earnings MoM are forecast at 0.30%, higher than the previous 0.20%.
This creates a key growth-inflation test for USD traders. If payrolls beat expectations and wages remain firm, the market may view the U.S. labor market as still resilient, supporting the USD. However, if payrolls miss sharply and unemployment rises, traders may increase expectations for future Fed easing, which could pressure the Dollar. IG also highlighted Friday’s NFP as the primary U.S. labor-market catalyst of the week, with consensus expecting payroll growth to slow to 73K from 178K.
This week is shaped by a powerful combination of U.S. services activity, labor demand, ADP employment, jobless claims, wage growth, NFP, and unemployment data. The market is not only watching whether the labor market is slowing, but also whether wage growth remains sticky enough to keep inflation concerns alive.
The USD may strengthen if U.S. data shows that the labor market remains resilient and wage pressure stays firm. However, the Dollar may weaken if job creation slows more than expected, jobless claims rise, and services activity loses momentum.
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario – Stronger Dollar Case
1. Services Data Beats Forecast - Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI come in above expectations, showing that the U.S. services sector remains resilient.
2. JOLTS Stays Firm - Job openings remain near or above the forecast of 6.870M, suggesting labor demand is still healthy.
3. ADP Employment Beats Expectations - ADP comes in above 90K, giving traders early confidence before Friday’s NFP.
4. NFP Beats Forecast - Nonfarm Payrolls come in above 73K, reducing concerns about a sharp labor-market slowdown.
5. Wage Growth Remains Sticky - Average Hourly Earnings come in at or above 0.30%, keeping inflation concerns alive.
6. Unemployment Holds Steady or Falls - The unemployment rate remains at 4.30% or moves lower, supporting the U.S. resilience narrative.
2. JOLTS Stays Firm - Job openings remain near or above the forecast of 6.870M, suggesting labor demand is still healthy.
3. ADP Employment Beats Expectations - ADP comes in above 90K, giving traders early confidence before Friday’s NFP.
4. NFP Beats Forecast - Nonfarm Payrolls come in above 73K, reducing concerns about a sharp labor-market slowdown.
5. Wage Growth Remains Sticky - Average Hourly Earnings come in at or above 0.30%, keeping inflation concerns alive.
6. Unemployment Holds Steady or Falls - The unemployment rate remains at 4.30% or moves lower, supporting the U.S. resilience narrative.
🔴 Bearish USD Scenario – Weaker Dollar Case
1. Services Activity Disappoints - Services PMI or ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI falls below forecast, suggesting weaker growth momentum.
2. JOLTS Drops Sharply - Job openings fall meaningfully below 6.870M, showing that labor demand is cooling.
3. ADP Employment Misses - ADP comes in below 90K, increasing concern ahead of Friday’s NFP.
4. NFP Misses Forecast - Nonfarm Payrolls fall below 73K, raising concerns that the U.S. labor market is losing momentum.
5. Wage Growth Softens - Average Hourly Earnings come in below 0.30%, reducing inflation pressure and supporting rate-cut expectations.
6. Unemployment Rises - The unemployment rate moves above 4.30%, which may trigger broader USD weakness.
2. JOLTS Drops Sharply - Job openings fall meaningfully below 6.870M, showing that labor demand is cooling.
3. ADP Employment Misses - ADP comes in below 90K, increasing concern ahead of Friday’s NFP.
4. NFP Misses Forecast - Nonfarm Payrolls fall below 73K, raising concerns that the U.S. labor market is losing momentum.
5. Wage Growth Softens - Average Hourly Earnings come in below 0.30%, reducing inflation pressure and supporting rate-cut expectations.
6. Unemployment Rises - The unemployment rate moves above 4.30%, which may trigger broader USD weakness.
🟡 Wild Cards – High Whipsaw Risk
1. RBA Policy Tone - A hawkish RBA could support AUD and pressure AUD/USD shorts, while a cautious tone may limit AUD upside.
2. Mixed U.S. Labor Signals - Strong wages but weak payrolls may create two-way USD volatility.
3. ISM Services Surprise - A strong services reading may support USD early in the week, while a weak reading may set a bearish tone before NFP.
4. Crude Oil Inventories - A larger inventory draw may support oil prices and revive inflation concerns.
5. BoE Governor Bailey’s Speech - A less dovish Bailey could support GBP and indirectly pressure USD through stronger GBP/USD movement.
6. Friday NFP Cluster - NFP, wages, and unemployment will be released together, so any mixed result may trigger sharp whipsaws across USD pairs, gold, indices, and bond yields.
2. Mixed U.S. Labor Signals - Strong wages but weak payrolls may create two-way USD volatility.
3. ISM Services Surprise - A strong services reading may support USD early in the week, while a weak reading may set a bearish tone before NFP.
4. Crude Oil Inventories - A larger inventory draw may support oil prices and revive inflation concerns.
5. BoE Governor Bailey’s Speech - A less dovish Bailey could support GBP and indirectly pressure USD through stronger GBP/USD movement.
6. Friday NFP Cluster - NFP, wages, and unemployment will be released together, so any mixed result may trigger sharp whipsaws across USD pairs, gold, indices, and bond yields.
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