🌅 NORDFX MORNING UPDATE | Tuesday, April 21, 2026...from NORDFX Global

21 Apr 2026, 14:23 · Views 450

🌅 NORDFX MORNING UPDATE | Tuesday, April 21, 2026

🌍 MACRO PICTURE The US-Iran standoff remains the dominant market driver. The ceasefire expires today - and Trump has warned of escalation if no deal is reached. Iran's parliament speaker said talks won't happen "under the shadow of threats." A US delegation is in Pakistan for negotiations, but Iran has yet to confirm participation. Markets are resilient but edgy, with Asian equities trading mixed while the Strait of Hormuz stays largely blocked.

🌏 ASIAN SESSION A split picture across Asia this morning:

🇰🇷 KOSPI hit a fresh all-time intraday high of 6,355, up over 2% - fully recovering its pre-war losses, led by Samsung (+1.9%) and SK Hynix (+3.9%), on AI optimism and hopes of Middle East de-escalation
🇯🇵 Nikkei 225: +1.21%
🇨🇳 CSI 300: -0.35%
🇭🇰 Hang Seng: +0.12%
🇦🇺 ASX 200: -0.28%
🇮🇳 Nifty 50: +0.43%
US futures are slightly positive: S&P 500 +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.23%

🛢️ OIL WTI: ~$87/bbl | Brent: ~$95/bbl Oil is elevated but off Monday's spike highs (WTI touched $88.8 on Monday). The Hormuz blockade continues to fuel supply fears. Watch today's ceasefire deadline closely - a breakthrough could send oil sharply lower.

💛 GOLD (XAU/USD) ~$4,800-4,830/oz - today's range: $4,737-4,890 Gold is recovering after Monday's dip. The metal is up ~40% year-on-year and ~9% over the past month. With rates on hold (Fed at 3.50-3.75%) and geopolitical uncertainty elevated, gold remains well-supported. Key range: $4,760-4,880.

💱 FOREX 🇪🇺 EUR/USD: ~1.1765 - holding recovery gains 🇬🇧 GBP/USD: ~1.3550 - bullish above 1.35 🇯🇵 USD/JPY: ~158.32 - Yen under pressure despite broad USD softness Dollar Index (DXY): ~97.85-98.03

₿ CRYPTO BTC: ~$75,300-75,800 - consolidating near recent levels. Institutional ETF demand and macro uncertainty are keeping a floor under prices. The AI-driven risk-on mood in Asia is providing mild support this morning.

📅 KEY DATA TODAY 🇳🇿 NZ Q1 CPI: 3.1% YoY (beat 2.9% forecast), +0.9% QoQ (beat 0.8%) - keeping RBNZ in a hawkish posture 🇬🇧 UK Employment data: due in the London session 🇺🇸 US Earnings: GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth Group, RTX Corp - key sector reads on industrials, healthcare and travel

⏰ THE BIG ONE TODAY The US-Iran ceasefire expires this evening. Any outcome - deal, extension, or breakdown - will move oil, gold and equities sharply. Stay alert.

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📊 Month-End Flows: USD Demand and Rebalancing Effects As April closes, the USD may find short-term support from month-end portfolio rebalancing, firm US yields, higher oil prices, and political uncertainty. The dollar has recently traded near the 98.3-98.5 DXY zone, while the US 10-year yield remains around 4.32%-4.33%. This keeps USD downside limited, especially if global portfolios need to adjust hedges and rebalance exposure into the month-end fix. Key drivers to watch: 📌 Rebalancing flows - potential tactical USD demand near London and New York fixing windows. 📌 USD/JPY - could stay supported if equity and hedge adjustments favor dollar buying versus the yen. 📌 Oil risk - Brent above $100 adds pressure on oil-importing currencies and supports defensive USD demand. 📌 Politics - US policy uncertainty, tariff risks, and Middle East tensions may increase volatility. Forecast view: month-end flows can create a temporary USD bid, but this looks more like flow-driven support than a confirmed broader bullish reversal. Fast moves and reversals remain possible. Trade global markets with NordFX: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... This is general information only and not financial advice. For personal guidance, please talk to a licensed professional.

NORDFX Global

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NORDFX Global

🌅 NORDFX MORNING UPDATE | April 14, 2026 🌍 MACRO PICTURE The US-Iran conflict continues to dominate global markets. After weekend peace talks collapsed and President Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, risk appetite took a hit. However, markets are now cautiously hopeful — Iran signalled willingness to resume negotiations. All eyes today are on the US March PPI, released at 8:30 AM ET, a key input for Fed policy expectations. 🇺🇸 US INFLATION March CPI came in at 3.3% YoY — the highest since May 2024 — with a monthly surge of 0.9%, the steepest since mid-2022, driven by energy costs. The Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75%, with no cuts priced in for the near term. 💱 FOREX 🇪🇺 EUR/USD: ~1.1729 — recovering above 1.17 as the USD loses some safe-haven momentum. ECB next meets April 30, with markets pricing ~26% chance of a hike. 🇬🇧 GBP/USD: ~1.3461 — holding above key support at 1.3200; modest bullish signals on technicals. 🇯🇵 USD/JPY: ~159.25 — yen under pressure; BoJ holds rates at 0.75%. 🛢️ OIL WTI: ~$97.45/bbl ⬇️ (-1.64%) — pulling back from a spike above $104 after the blockade announcement; markets trimming positions on renewed Iran-US dialogue hopes. OPEC+ output fell 7.9M bbl/day in March due to Hormuz closure. 🥇 GOLD XAU/USD: ~$4,703 ⬇️ — down ~1% from yesterday, paring last week's gains amid reassessment of Fed rate path. Still +47% YoY. Range today: $4,701–$4,761. ₿ CRYPTO BTC: ~$68,300 ⬇️ — under pressure, down ~1.6%, with Fear & Greed Index at 12 ("Extreme Fear"). Geopolitical uncertainty and sticky inflation weigh on risk assets. Watch: Paris Blockchain Week kicks off tomorrow (Apr 15–16), with President Macron scheduled to speak on digital assets. 📌 KEY EVENT TODAY 🗓️ US March PPI — 8:30 AM ET A hotter print → USD strength, gold & BTC pressure.

NORDFX Global