🔥 Key Driver: Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend after the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman. Oil surged, the dollar gapped higher at the open - markets are on edge.
📊 Forex - Asian Session Rates:
💶 EUR/USD - ~1.1834 (+0.43%) - holding near two-month highs despite some pressure after reports Trump is pushing for a 15-20% minimum tariff on EU goods, which pulled the pair off its peaks. Third consecutive weekly gain still intact.
💷 GBP/USD - ~1.3588 (+0.44%) - two-month highs, riding broad dollar weakness.
🇯🇵 USD/JPY - ~158.60 - opened at 159.20 but the yen is firming. BoJ Governor Ueda warned the energy shock risks Japan's growth. Intervention watch stays active near 160.00.
🪙 Commodities:
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) - ~$4,830 - today's range: $4,767-$4,890. Opened around $4,792, recovered as geopolitical risk returned. Safe-haven demand supports, but a rebounding dollar caps gains. Resistance at $4,830-$4,890.
🛢️ Oil - WTI ~$89 (+6.2%) / Brent ~$95.40 (+5.6%) - surging at Monday's open as Iran reasserted Hormuz closure and targeted ships. Reversal of Friday's 10%+ plunge. Energy shock keeps inflation risks high globally.
📈 Asian Markets - April 20:
🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 - showing resilience, moving back toward recent highs despite geopolitical headwinds. AI/tech optimism partly offsetting risk aversion.
🇨🇳 Hang Seng (~26,390) - modestly positive (+0.88%), supported by China's solid Q1 GDP of 5.0% (beat estimates of 4.8%).
🇹🇼 Taiwan equities - hit a record high, driven by AI sector momentum.
📉 Shanghai (SSE) - ~4,051, marginally lower (-0.10%).
🌐 The Big Picture:
The ceasefire optimism of last week evaporated fast. Oil is back up, inflation fears are back, and the Fed stays on hold (99.5% probability in April). The ECB faces a dilemma - energy-driven inflation, with 2 rate hikes now priced for 2026. Watch Trump's EU tariff push for extra EUR/USD pressure this week.
📅 Key Events This Week:
- Apr 21 - ADP Employment (US)
- Apr 23 - US PMI + Jobless Claims
- Apr 24 - UoM Inflation Expectations
⚡ High volatility environment - position sizing and risk management are critical!
⚠️ Risk Warning: Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk of loss.
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