1. 伊朗大佬遇刺，局势炸了
伊朗确认国安首长拉里贾尼被以军搞掉了。这是开战以来最大的“斩首”行动。
- 后续影响： 伊朗已经放话不谈了，直接复仇。霍尔木兹海峡现在只让“友好国家”过，这相当于变相封锁，油价随时会再窜上去。
2. 行情出的怪象：黄金原油双摔
今天上午黄金跌破5000，原油也回撤到100以下。
- 逻辑： 这不是地缘风险没了，而是大家被加息预期吓到了，钱全跑回美元里躲着。这种“避险买美元、抛售大宗”的逻辑在衰退预期下经常出现，别轻易去抄底。
3. 隔壁澳洲先动手了
澳洲央行昨天抢跑加息25个基点。这说明能源通胀已经逼得各国央行坐不住了，全球“高利率”的时间可能会比想象中更长。
Edited 18 Mar 2026, 13:31
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