2026年3月国际黄金先冲高后急跌，现货黄金一度突破5400美元/盎司，随后快速回调至5000美元附近，国内黄金T D同步在1130-1180元/克区间剧烈波动。
核心驱动来自美联储政策、地缘风险、资金调仓三重共振。美国经济数据偏强，降息预期延后，美元与美债收益率走强，压制无息黄金；中东局势反复带来避险溢价，但情绪快速消退，高位获利盘集中离场放大跌幅。全球央行持续购金，为金价提供底部支撑，5000美元成为关键防线。
短期金价维持5100-5400美元高位震荡，重点关注3月议息会议与地缘动向。中期降息周期仍存预期，叠加央行购金与避险需求，黄金结构性牛市未改，波动中逢低配置价值仍在。
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