黄金

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当前国际金价高位震荡,短期受避险情绪退潮、美元走强影响小幅回调,中期仍具上行支撑。中东局势反复带来避险波动,美联储降息预期推迟但下半年降息周期不变,美债收益率与美元指数压制金价空间。全球央行持续购金、去美元化趋势,为金价提供底部支撑。短期金价以宽幅震荡为主,波动加剧;中长期随降息落地、实物需求旺季来临,金价有望震荡走高。机构普遍预计,全年金价中枢上移,核心运行区间5000—6200美元/盎司,操作上建议回调分批布局,警惕高位追涨风险。

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