On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Tehran, targeting military facilities, government security departments, and command nodes. Shortly afterward, Iranian state media confirmed that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed during the airstrikes.

This incident represents the most direct external military strike against the core power structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran since its establishment in 1979.

Impact on Iran’s Power Structure and Political System

In addition to being Iran’s highest political authority, Khamenei also served as the supreme religious leader of Iran’s theocratic system. Within Iran’s constitutional framework, the Supreme Leader holds extensive influence over the parliament, the executive system, and religious networks. The position also controls the armed forces, national security decision-making, senior judicial appointments, and institutional arbitration.

Therefore, Khamenei’s death does not merely create a vacancy in a single position. It involves a restructuring across three key dimensions: political decision-making, military command, and religious legitimacy.

West Asian Security Landscape and Uncertainty in the Persian Gulf

The operation occurred amid already heightened tensions in West Asia’s power structure. Iran maintains a multi-layered influence network across the region, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

If Iran chooses to respond through proxy forces or direct military action, the conflict could expand into the Persian Gulf and surrounding Arab regions.

A critical strategic chokepoint is the Strait of Hormuz. This strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and serves as one of the world’s most important maritime routes for oil and liquefied natural gas. A significant portion of globally transported crude oil passes through this channel, with Asia being the primary end market.

If risks to passage increase—even without a full blockade—tanker insurance rates, shipping schedules, and energy pricing could all adjust simultaneously. This risk premium would directly translate into higher energy import costs.

Real Economic Impact on Asia

From Asia’s perspective, the economic effects of this conflict are primarily concentrated in three areas: energy costs, shipping routes, and industrial profit structures.

1. Energy Import Costs

Asian economies such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India rely heavily on crude oil and natural gas supplies from the Persian Gulf.

If energy prices rise due to prolonged conflict, sectors such as petrochemicals, power generation, steel, plastics, and aviation may face increased cost pressures.

Cost transmission typically occurs in stages:

Crude oil and natural gas prices

→ Transportation and insurance costs

→ Industrial electricity and chemical raw materials

→ Manufacturing profit margins

If high energy prices persist, companies may need to raise prices or absorb lower profit margins.

2. Maritime Shipping and Logistics Costs

Energy exports from the Persian Gulf connect to Asia’s major shipping routes through the Indian Ocean.

If military risks increase, shipping companies may raise insurance premiums, reduce sailing frequency, or alter routes. Uncertainty in arrival costs and delivery times could disrupt order planning and inventory management for export-oriented economies.

Asia’s manufacturing sector depends heavily on a stable maritime logistics system. If shipping costs remain elevated for an extended period, low-margin export industries will be under the greatest pressure.

3. Currency and Financial Pressure

A larger energy import bill means greater foreign exchange outflows. If global capital reallocates due to geopolitical tensions, some Asian currencies may face depreciation pressure.

This could lead to a chain reaction including higher import costs, increased burden on USD-denominated debt, and rising inflation pressures.

Central banks across the region will need to balance exchange rate stability and economic growth.

MEGAFUSION Market Observation Summary

Arab energy-exporting countries in the Persian Gulf may experience a short-term increase in fiscal revenue when oil prices rise. However, these gains depend on the security of export routes and regional stability.

If the conflict expands to ports, oil and gas infrastructure, or shipping routes, physical damage and declining investor confidence could offset the benefits of higher oil prices.

For these countries, regional security and the protection of energy infrastructure will become top priorities.

“Bringing Security Together, Creating Wealth.”

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