Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of February 9 - 16, 2026 (GMT+8)
This week’s macro calendar is dominated by U.S. labor + inflation data, with U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate + Average Hourly Earnings (Wed 21:30) and U.S. CPI (MoM/YoY) + Core CPI (Fri 21:30) acting as the main USD volatility anchors (UTC+8). Early in the week, U.S. Retail Sales + Core Retail Sales (Tue 21:30) set the tone for consumption strength and can quickly reprice yields and risk sentiment. Mid-week, Crude Oil Inventories (Wed 23:30) may trigger energy-linked swings, while Japan’s National Founding Day (Wed, Holiday) could slightly thin Asia-session liquidity. Outside the U.S., UK GDP (YoY/MoM/QoQ) (Thu 15:00) is the key GBP risk event, followed by U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 21:30) and Existing Home Sales (Thu 23:00) as important “confirmation checks” for growth and rates expectations. Finally, keep an eye on U.S. duration supply via the 10-Year Note Auction (Thu 02:00) and 30-Year Bond Auction (Fri 02:01), which can amplify moves in yields heading into the CPI-driven close-of-week positioning.
| Time | Cur. | Events | Fcst | Prev |
| USD | ||||
| USD | ||||
| Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) | ||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | ||||
| Unemployment Rate (Jan) | ||||
| Crude Oil Inventories | ||||
| GDP (MoM) (Dec) | ||||
| GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | ||||
| Initial Jobless Claims | ||||
| Existing Home Sales (Jan) | ||||
| 30-Year Bond Auction | ||||
| CPI (MoM) (Jan) | ||||
| CPI (YoY) (Jan) | ||||
| Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) |
| Key highlights: |
๐บ๐ธ Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) – Tuesday 21:30
๐บ๐ธ Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) – Tuesday 21:30
๐บ๐ธ Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) – Wednesday 21:30
๐บ๐ธ Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) – Wednesday 21:30
๐บ๐ธ Unemployment Rate (Jan) – Wednesday 21:30
๐บ๐ธ Crude Oil Inventories – Wednesday 23:30
๐บ๐ธ 10-Year Note Auction – Thursday 02:00
๐ฌ๐ง GDP (YoY) (Q4) – Thursday 15:00
๐ฌ๐ง GDP (MoM) (Dec) – Thursday 15:00
๐ฌ๐ง GDP (QoQ) (Q4) – Thursday 15:00
๐บ๐ธ Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday 21:30
๐บ๐ธ Existing Home Sales (Jan) – Thursday 23:00
๐บ๐ธ 30-Year Bond Auction – Friday 02:01
๐บ๐ธ CPI (MoM) (Jan) – Friday 21:30
๐บ๐ธ CPI (YoY) (Jan) – Friday 21:30
๐บ๐ธ Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) – Friday 21:30
Macro Analysis:
๐บ๐ธ U.S. Growth Pulse (Retail Sales + Core Retail Sales) – Tue:
Consumer spending is the first big “growth check” of the week. A stronger print supports the resilience narrative (yields/ USD supported), while a weaker result can shift pricing toward slower growth and push risk sentiment more cautiously into the mid-week labor data.
๐บ๐ธ U.S. Labour Anchor (NFP + Unemployment + AHE) – Wed:
This is the main USD volatility anchor before CPI. Payrolls sets the headline tone, unemployment frames slack/tightness, and Average Hourly Earnings feeds directly into inflation sensitivity. A “hot” labor bundle typically lifts yields and supports USD; a softer bundle can trigger fast repricing lower in yields and a lighter USD tone.
๐บ๐ธ U.S. Labour Stress Check (Initial Claims) – Thu:
Claims acts as the near-term confirmation signal after NFP. Lower-than-expected claims reinforces tight-labor conditions (USD/yields supportive). Higher claims can validate cooling momentum and amplify any post-NFP risk-off / lower-yield move.
๐บ๐ธ U.S. Inflation Anchor (CPI + Core CPI) – Fri:
This is the week’s decisive repricing event. CPI (headline) shapes broad inflation expectations, while Core CPI typically carries the heavier policy/real-yield impact. Expect positioning to compress into the release, then expand quickly on surprise magnitude vs expectations.
๐บ๐ธ Rates Volatility Amplifiers (10Y Auction Thu + 30Y Auction Fri):
Treasury auctions can swing yields and curve shape, especially when they bracket the week’s biggest data. Weak demand can push yields up (supporting USD), while strong demand can ease yields and soften USD—often amplifying whatever narrative NFP/CPI sets.
๐บ๐ธ Energy → Inflation Sensitivity (Crude Oil Inventories) – Wed:
Oil moves can feed into inflation expectations and risk tone. A draw that lifts crude can keep inflation concerns “alive” into CPI; a build that pressures crude can cool inflation fears and support a softer rates impulse.
๐ฌ๐ง UK GDP (YoY/MoM/QoQ) – Thu:
This is the key GBP risk event. Surprises can move GBP sharply and spill into broader USD flows through relative-rate repricing and risk sentiment, especially with U.S. claims/housing later the same day.
Speculative Outlook for USD Traders:
This is a labour-first, CPI-finish week. Expect fast repricing around Wed 21:30 and Fri 21:30, with auctions and oil acting as volatility multipliers.
๐ข Bullish USD Scenario
-
Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales come in firm (growth stays resilient)
-
NFP strong and/or Unemployment steady/lower (labor tight)
-
AHE prints firm (inflation pressure narrative persists)
-
Claims stay low (no labor stress signal)
-
CPI/Core CPI surprise higher (rates reprice up)
-
Auctions tail weakly (yields lift and support USD)
๐ด Bearish USD Scenario
-
Retail Sales/Core miss (growth momentum questions)
-
NFP soft and/or Unemployment rises (cooling labor)
-
AHE moderates (wage pressure eases)
-
Claims jump higher (stress check confirms cooling)
-
CPI/Core CPI prints softer (disinflation narrative strengthens)
-
Auctions show strong demand (yields ease, USD softens)
๐ก Wild Cards (High Whipsaw Risk)
-
“Mixed bundle” labor data (headline NFP strong but AHE soft, or vice versa) causing reversal moves
-
Oil inventory surprise creating an inflation-headline swing into CPI
-
Auction-driven yield spikes/drops that front-run or fade the data reaction
-
UK GDP surprise driving GBP volatility that bleeds into broader USD positioning late Thursday
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