今日的核心事件无疑是澳大利亚最新一轮通胀数据的公布（澳洲东部时间上午 11:30）。在市场预期新一轮价格上涨压力将持续的背景下，投资者已提前计价通胀降温乏力的情形，因此澳元的走强已在汇率走势中清晰体现。
澳大利亚通胀变化，来源：澳大利亚统计局（ABS）
从澳大利亚统计局公布的数据来看，无论是总体通胀，还是剔除波动项目后的修正均值通胀（trimmed mean），自去年 5 月以来均出现明显反弹。这进一步强化了市场的主流判断：澳洲联储（RBA）已基本结束降息周期，并可能最早于 5 月启动加息。
在这一叙事推动下，澳元汇率持续积聚上行动能，并成功突破多个关键阻力位。AUD/USD 汇率有效突破 0.67254 的强阻力水平，创下自 2024 年 10 月以来的最强表现，同时也刷新了自 2023 年 2 月以来的高点，达到 35 个月新高。
AUDUSD 日线图
另一方面，美元自围绕格陵兰问题的地缘政治紧张局势升温、以及北约国家内部对关税问题的担忧加剧以来持续走弱。作为全球主导货币，美元的可信度再次受到国际市场的质疑。
DXY 日线图
衡量美元兑六种主要货币表现的美元指数持续下挫，自 99.202 的关键阻力位回落，先后跌破 98.423 与 96.510 支撑位，最新徘徊于 95.948 附近。从 K 线形态来看，美元指数已连续 四个交易日收跌，并伴随显著的阴线实体，暗示抛售压力可能尚未完全释放。
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