The Australian dollar fell on Wednesday following a weak inflation report, though markets had largely brushed off deepening geopolitical fractures around the world.
Australian consumer prices rose by less than forecast in November, but core inflation showed enough stickiness which speaks to an interest rate hike as early as next month.
Traders see a 33% risk that the RBA will act again in February. The central bank cut interest rates three times last year to 3.6% while warning the next move could be up given the pick-up in inflation.
The country's December exports showed strong performance, particularly in resources like gold and LNG, with high export volumes and increased earnings forecasts for the 2025-26 year.
Asia's factory powerhouses closed 2025 on a firmer footing, with activity swinging back to growth in several key economies as export orders picked up, helped by new product launches.
While it is too early to say whether Asia's largest exporters are adjusting to higher tariffs, the recovery may spur optimism on demand for Australia's resources heading into the new year.
The Aussie held its uptrend that began in late November, with few signs of easing momentum. We see the initial resistance around $0.6800, a push above which would expose $0.6870.
Asset recap
As of market close on 6 January, among EBC products, Texas Instruments shares led gains. The company is closely watched to assess demand for chips that go into factories and cars.
Chevron suffered its worst loss in months as the market got a reality check. More voices joined those cautioning that the road ahead for US oil companies in Venezuela could be difficult.
Gold is drawing bullish calls from major banks as conditions line up for fresh record highs. Morgan Stanley said in a note that prices could hit new heights this year and rise to $4,800 by Q4.
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