Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of December 29, 2025 - January 3, 2026

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of December 29, 2025 - January 3, 2026 (GMT+8)
This week’s macro calendar (29 Dec 2025 – 3 Jan 2026, UTC+8) is holiday-thinned but still market-relevant, with key U.S. data and China’s Manufacturing PMI early in the week.
With the New Year’s holiday liquidity approaching, traders should be ready for outsized moves from smaller surprises, especially across USD pairs and USD/JPY.

Macro Analysis
1. U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Monday)
Monday will kick off with Crude Oil Inventories. As oil is a major risk asset and USD driver, any surprises here can significantly impact risk sentiment and USD flows, especially with a thinner holiday market. The previous print was -1.274M, so traders will be on alert for any surprises that can drive short-term volatility.

2. U.S. Chicago PMI & Manufacturing Sentiment (Tuesday)
Tuesday’s focus is on Chicago PMI (Dec), expected at 39.5, up from 36.3 prior. This will give traders insight into U.S. manufacturing activity. A print above expectations will likely boost USD, signaling resilient economic conditions. 

3. U.S. FOMC Minutes & China PMI (Wednesday)
Wednesday brings U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes and China’s Manufacturing PMI (Dec). The FOMC minutes will provide insight into the Fed's stance on interest rates and its overall view on the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, the China PMI print (expected at 49.2) will show how the manufacturing sector is performing, potentially influencing global growth sentiment and USD positioning.

4. Jobless Claims & S&P PMI (Friday)
On Friday, Initial Jobless Claims (expected at 214K vs. 224K prior) will provide a read on labor market conditions. A lower print could support USD as a sign of labor strength. Additionally, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (expected at 51.8 vs. 52.2 prior) will give a more general view of the U.S. manufacturing sector’s performance.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders
This week’s volatility chain runs through Crude Oil → Chicago PMI → FOMC Minutes → Jobless Claims → S&P PMI. Here’s how it could play out:
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario
  Crude Oil inventories drawdown supports bullish risk sentiment
  Chicago PMI beats expectations (39.5 vs 36.3)
  FOMC minutes reinforce a hawkish tone (rates remain high)
  Jobless Claims remain contained (≤220K)
  S&P PMI confirms resilience in manufacturing (51.8 vs 52.2)

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario
  Crude Oil inventories rise unexpectedly (bearish risk sentiment)
  Chicago PMI weakens (growth cooling signal)
  FOMC minutes show more dovish concerns (rate-cut pricing increases)
  Jobless Claims rise (labor market softens)
  S&P PMI prints lower (weaker manufacturing activity)

🟡 Wild Card: Holiday Liquidity Distortion
  Thin liquidity in the market could cause sudden and exaggerated price moves even from minor surprises.
  Any shift in China’s PMI or the FOMC minutes could lead to big moves in USD, particularly if they conflict with other risk sentiment drivers.

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