Gold prices remain elevated near record levels around $4,300 per ounce as markets turn cautious ahead of major U.S. economic releases. The metal is holding firm in early Asian trade, reflecting a balance between expectations of Fed easing and easing geopolitical risks.
The key focus is today’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, where markets expect a soft reading of around +50K jobs and a potential rise in unemployment to 4.5%. Any downside surprise could fuel expectations of earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts, further supporting gold prices.
In addition to jobs data, traders are watching U.S. retail sales, preliminary manufacturing data, and November inflation figures due later this week for clearer guidance on the Fed’s policy path. Markets currently price a 75.6% probability of rates staying unchanged in January, while still expecting two cuts next year.
Limiting gold’s upside are signs of progress toward a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which has slightly reduced safe-haven demand.
Bottom Line:
Gold’s trend remains constructive near record highs, but short-term direction hinges on U.S. data. Volatility is likely, with dips attracting buyers as long as Fed rate-cut expectations stay alive.
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