XAUUSD (Gold) is moving within a fairly consistent bullish channel on the H1 timeframe. The bullish leg started around 4185, followed by a strong rally that peaked near 4353, where clear price rejection was observed. Currently, the price is trading around 4306. Despite extremely high volatility and sharp intraday swings, the overall market structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows remaining intact.
From an indicator perspective, the bias remains bullish with some near-term caution. Price is holding above rising moving averages, confirming buyers still control the broader structure. Bollinger Bands stay widely expanded, reflecting high volatility, while price consolidates near the middle band after the recent rejection. The Parabolic SAR remains below price, supporting bullish continuation, and the Stochastic Oscillator is turning higher in the upper zone, signaling renewed momentum but nearing overbought levels. Bulls Power remains positive, indicating buyers are still dominant, though momentum appears to be stabilizing.
The strong and volatile price action in Gold is largely driven by broad-based US dollar weakness. This stems from ongoing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, particularly regarding interest rates and liquidity conditions. At the same time, continued instability across both US and global economies, ranging from trade and tariff tensions to wider geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, continues to underpin safe-haven demand for Gold, keeping the overall bias skewed to the upside despite short-term pullbacks.
Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: XAUUSD is trading around 4306, holding above the mid-range of its bullish structure after a sharp pullback from the recent high. Price action suggests consolidation, with buyers attempting to regain momentum following the rejection near the peak.
2. Resistance Zone: The immediate resistance is located around 4347 – 4353, which marks the recent swing high and upper boundary where strong rejection previously occurred. A clean break above this zone would likely open room for further bullish continuation.
3. Support Zone: Key support is seen around 4258 – 4275, aligned with the ascending trendline and dynamic support. A deeper support level lies near 4221, where previous price reactions and structure support are evident.
4. Indicators: Bollinger Bands remain upward-sloping, indicating that the broader trend is still bullish despite current consolidation. The Stochastic oscillator is rising from lower levels and approaching the upper zone, signaling recovering bullish momentum. Bull Power has stabilized above zero, suggesting buyers are still in control but with reduced strength compared to the impulsive rally.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:
- Bullish Continuation: Look for buy-on-dip opportunities near 4275 – 4258 with confirmation from bullish candlestick patterns.
- Breakout Strategy: Consider breakout buys if price closes firmly above 4353, targeting higher extensions.
- Risk Management: Be cautious of false breakouts and manage risk tightly, as high volatility may trigger sharp intraday pullbacks before trend continuation.
Market Performance:
Precious Metals Last Price % Change
XPTUSD 1,761.59 +0.48%
XAGUSD 62.0589 +0.23%
Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
JP: Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
CN: Industrial Production YoY
CN: Retail Sales YoY
DE: Wholesale Prices MoM & YoY
EU: Industrial Production MoM
CA: Inflation Rate YoY
US: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
US: Fed Miran Speech
US: NAHB Housing Market Index
US: Fed Williams Speech
Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the official position of Followme. Followme does not take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided and is not liable for any actions taken based on the content, unless explicitly stated in writing.
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