U.S. Data Watch – Dec 5, 2025

05 Dec 2025, 20:52 · Views 964

Core PCE (Key Inflation Gauge): Main focus for markets today

Personal Income & Spending (Sept): Due at 10 AM

BEA Release: U.S. affiliates of foreign MNCs data

Market Mood: Steady ahead of inflation numbers; Fed expectations in focus

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Irie

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Here’s why Deutsche Bank expects the dollar to weaken further next year Deutsche Bank outlook: Analysts expect the U.S. dollar to weaken further in 2026, but at a slower pace. Dollar index performance: The index fell over 6% in the past year against major currencies. Policy impact: Tariffs, rising U.S. debt concerns, and Fed independence worries pressured the dollar in 2025. Trump factor: The shock from Donald Trump’s return to the presidency earlier in 2025 is considered "now over." Analysts cited: George Saravelos and Tim Baker authored the Deutsche Bank note.

Irie

*Gold Market Update – Key Points* Gold prices edged higher on Monday, briefly testing the *$4,100 level before retreating to around $4,050 as traders remained cautious ahead of major U.S. economic releases this week. Investor focus is on U.S. data, including Thursday’s September nonfarm payrolls, which will offer fresh insight into economic momentum and guide expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Rate-cut expectations have softened, with markets now pricing a 46% probability* of a quarter-point cut next month, down from 50% last week. Analysts say scaled-back expectations and lingering uncertainty after the government shutdown are weighing on gold. Several Fed policymakers have expressed reluctance toward further easing, citing persistent *inflation concerns* and signs of labour-market stability after two rate cuts this year. Gold, a non-yielding asset, typically benefits from lower interest rates and economic uncertainty, but current Fed hesitation is limiting upside momentum. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) remains firm, reducing gold’s appeal for holders of other currencies.

Irie

📊 High-Impact U.S. Data to Watch Today 1. 7:00 PM IST – Main Event (Data Cluster) Core PPI: 0.2% PPI: 0.3% Retail Sales: 0.4% Core Retail Sales: 0.3% Retail Control: 0.3% Impact: Strong Sales + Strong PPI → USD ↑, Gold ↓, USTEC/US30 ↓ (rate cut hopes fade). Weak Readings → USD ↓, Gold ↑, Indices ↑. 2. 8:30 PM IST – Consumer Confidence Forecast: 93.5 (Prev: 94.6) Lower confidence may extend USD weakness after initial reaction. 3. Best Instruments to Trade FX: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Commodities: XAUUSD (Gold) Indices: USTEC, US30 ✅ Summary The 7 PM PPI + Retail Sales combo is the key driver — second only to NFP in impact. Expect sharp moves across USD, Gold, and indices. Trade the reaction, not the release. #US# #Fed# #KeyData#

Irie

White House asks Congress to reject bill blocking Nvidia chip exports- Bloomberg The White House’s stance is a victory for Nvidia, which has been consistently lobbying to be allowed to sell more chips overseas. China until recently still represented a major market for Nvidia, although the firm signaled earlier this year that it would stop including the country in its sales forecasts. This also came amid increased Chinese scrutiny towards American-made chips, as Beijing pushed for full self-reliance in AI technology. The Bloomberg report comes just hours after Nvidia clocked stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings and presented an upbeat outlook for the current quarter. CEO Jensen Huang also pushed back against fears of an AI-fueled bubble in tech valuations. #whitehouse #trump #bloomberg #china #USA #nvidia

Irie

Germany 2026 Economic Outlook Tepid Recovery: IW expects Germany’s economy to stay sluggish as exports weaken and global trade slows. GDP Forecasts: 2025: +0.1% 2026: +0.9% (boosted partly by more working days). Calendar Effect: Nearly 2.5 extra working days will contribute about a third of 2026’s growth. Govt vs IW Forecasts: Economy Ministry sees 1.3% growth in 2026 — higher than IW’s estimate. Global Drag: World trade growth expected to drop from 4.5% in 2025 to just 1.5% in 2026 due to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Investment Pressure: Weak foreign trade dampens private investment; government investment likely to remain limited. #GermanyGDP# #Economy# #IWInstitute# #globaltrade#

Irie