Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of October 13 to 18, 2025 (GMT+8)
This week's economic calendar is packed with U.S. inflation, retail, and labor market data all of which could heavily influence Fed expectations and market sentiment. Fed Chair Powell's speech early in the week will set the tone ahead of the CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls releases. This content is only supported in a Lark Docs| Time | Cur. | Events | Fcst | Prev |
|
Tuesday, October 14, 2025
|
||||
| 23:30 | USD |
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
|
||
| Wednesday, October 15, 2025 | ||||
| 20:30 | USD | Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 20:30 | USD | CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 20:30 | USD | CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.90% | |
| Thursday, October 16, 2025 | ||||
| 14:00 | GBP | GDP (MoM) (Aug) | 0.00% | |
| 20:30 | USD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.40% | 0.70% |
| 20:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 23.2 | |
| 20:30 | USD | PPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.30% | -0.10% |
| 20:30 | USD | Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 20:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 223K | 218K |
| Friday, October 17, 2025 | ||||
| 00:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 3.715M | |
| 17:00 | EUR | CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.20% | 2.00% |
| 20:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 20:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) | 52K | 22K |
| 20:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 4.3K | 4.3K |
| Key highlights: |
- ๐บ๐ธ Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Tuesday, Oct 14 (23:30)
- ๐บ๐ธ U.S. CPI & Core CPI – Wednesday, Oct 15 (20:30)
- Focus: Inflation remains sticky, and any upside surprise could reignite USD strength and weigh on equities. -
- ๐ฌ๐ง UK GDP (MoM) – Thursday, Oct 16 (14:00)
- Stagnant growth could raise pressure on the Bank of England amid rising inflation risks.
- ๐บ๐ธ U.S. Retail Sales & PPI – Thursday, Oct 16 (20:30)
- Retail Sales: Forecast +0.4% (prev. +0.6%)
- PPI: Forecast +0.3% (prev. –0.1%)
- Jobless Claims: Forecast 223K (prev. 218K)
Consumer and producer data will provide key insights into spending momentum and inflation pipeline pressures.
- ๐ช๐บ Eurozone CPI (YoY) – Friday, Oct 17 (17:00)
- Slight pickup expected — a hawkish sign for ECB watchers.
- ๐บ๐ธ U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment – Friday, Oct 17 (20:30)
- Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.3% (prev. 4.3%)
- Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% MoM (steady)
Labor data will be crucial for assessing whether the Fed maintains its current stance or shifts tone.
Macro Analysis
๐บ๐ธ United States – Inflation & Jobs in Focus
With Powell’s speech and CPI early in the week, traders will gauge whether inflation remains resilient.
Strong CPI or PPI could delay rate-cut expectations. Later, Nonfarm Payrolls will provide a labor check — any softness could spark dovish bets.
With Powell’s speech and CPI early in the week, traders will gauge whether inflation remains resilient.
Strong CPI or PPI could delay rate-cut expectations. Later, Nonfarm Payrolls will provide a labor check — any softness could spark dovish bets.
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom – Growth Stalls
Flat GDP growth highlights ongoing economic weakness, keeping GBP under pressure unless the BoE turns surprisingly hawkish.
Flat GDP growth highlights ongoing economic weakness, keeping GBP under pressure unless the BoE turns surprisingly hawkish.
๐ช๐บ Eurozone – Inflation Watch
A mild rebound in CPI could support the euro if the ECB maintains its cautious stance on rate cuts.
A mild rebound in CPI could support the euro if the ECB maintains its cautious stance on rate cuts.
Speculative Outlook for USD Traders
๐ข Bullish USD Scenario
- CPI and PPI print above expectations.
- Powell signals prolonged tightening bias.
- NFP beats forecasts.
→ Possible Trades: Long USD/JPY, Short EUR/USD, Short Gold.
- Powell signals prolonged tightening bias.
- NFP beats forecasts.
→ Possible Trades: Long USD/JPY, Short EUR/USD, Short Gold.
๐ด Bearish USD Scenario
- Inflation data cools more than forecast.
- Powell hints at easing or neutral stance.
- Weak jobs report increases rate-cut expectations.
→ Possible Trades: Long EUR/USD, Long Gold, Long GBP/USD.
- Weak jobs report increases rate-cut expectations.
→ Possible Trades: Long EUR/USD, Long Gold, Long GBP/USD.
๐ก Neutral / Mixed Setup
- CPI meets forecast but labor data disappoints — potential sideways USD moves with short-term volatility spikes.
Watch the full calendar at Followme Economic Calendar Tool
๐ Don’t forget to follow Followme and stay in sync with the latest updates.
๐ Don’t forget to follow Followme and stay in sync with the latest updates.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the official position of Followme. Followme does not take responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided and is not liable for any actions taken based on the content, unless explicitly stated in writing.
Like this article? Show your appreciation by sending a tip to the author.
Leave Your Message Now