主要驱动因素集中于对主要央行货币政策路径的预期博弈。市场情绪在“经济软着陆”的乐观预期与“通胀黏性导致高利率维持更久”的担忧之间反复摇摆。美股方面，科技巨头（如“瑰丽七股”）凭借AI叙事和强劲财报一度领涨，但对利率敏感的板块则承压。
A股市场则在政策预期与基本面现实之间寻找平衡。近期一系列提振资本市场的政策（如“新国九条”、地产利好）释放了积极信号，推动了市场风险偏好的阶段性回暖，但投资者仍在密切关注经济数据（如PMI、CPI）以验证复苏的强度和可持续性，市场整体仍以结构性行情为主。
展望后市，利率政策动向、地缘政治风险及企业盈利修复情况将继续成为影响股市的关键变量。
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