英国最近的CPI数据显示食品通胀已见顶，超市宣布降价计划，水电费预计下降，预示未来几个月通胀将下降，市场对英国央行加息的幅度产生怀疑。然而，央行采取更具限制性的货币政策可能给经济带来压力，对英镑有利但也存在经济影响的担忧。英镑净多头头寸过多，投资人不愿继续做多英镑。尽管预期央行可能继续加息，但担心收紧货币政策增加经济衰退风险，限制了英镑的上行空间。预计央行将再加息两次，市场预期为五次，对英镑收益率的支撑将减弱。技术面上，英镑兑美元处于长期上升趋势，但短期进一步走高的基础不稳固，空头希望跌破1.2700关口。操作上建议以逢高做空为主，进场点位为1.2740，目标点位为1.2600，止损点位为1.2850。
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