当前种种迹象表明美国房地产正先于经济软着陆。尤其是二季度以来，以新屋开工和成屋销售为代表的一系列指标持续回暖，亚特兰大联储最新预测在连续8个季度下滑后，住宅投资有望在今年二季度为美国GDP贡献正增长。鉴于美联储一年多来已累计加息500bp，住宅投资在加息周期尚未结束时提前转正，显然是有悖于历史经验的。
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