交易的不确定性

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为什么在交易中,圣杯不存在?

无论从基本面还是技术面出发,分析的过程都是个人逻辑的体现,而市场运行结果则是市场逻辑的体现,个人逻辑替代不了市场逻辑。因此不管分析多么缜密,都无法跨越个人逻辑和市场逻辑之间的鸿沟,除非你有本事让市场能够服从你的个人逻辑。从个人逻辑到市场逻辑,只能是一种相关性,而非因果。

而市场运行逻辑,大多是市场运行之后的一种回顾和总结。而且,每次能否找到市场逻辑,在概率上是独立的。这次成功的经验,可能就埋下了下次失败的隐患。

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