Biggest Mover of March!
Just like that, another month has flown by, end of the quarter this time, so it's a little bit more special. What I want to do is run through and have a look at the biggest movers to the upside and to the downside of the month. One of them really stood out across all pairs an I think you guys already know which one I'm going to talk about, the Japanese yen.
Looking at our biggest mover of the month, it was AUDJPY and unsurprisingly given how bullish we are looking at the Aussie dollar at the moment and how bearish we were looking at the Japanese yen. As the data unfolded throughout the month, which I talk about momentarily, I am not shocked about this big move but was no expecting a whopping 13.30%. Which was a fantastic move and good to see these types of moves in the Forex market when the volatility comes through. It's bad news obviously for the Japanese yen. Great news for the Aussie dollar. Be interesting to see how it reacts from here.
The Japanese yen was very volatile this month. We have a lot of movement due to the unforeseen circumstances around the world. Looking at the Japanese yen fundamentally, it wasn't a great month. Their unemployment rate increase showing that less people had jobs. The producer price index actually increased too much greater than forecasted, which was good news for the Japanese yen, but that didn't last long with the BSI manufacturing index being a massive shock to the system. While the forecast for it was an 8.2 from its previous of 7.9 (forecasting growth). It came in at a whopping -7.6, which was very bad news. Once we adjusted to that bad news, we were met with the trade balance, which was extremely negative as you can see by the chart put below. You can see where the money started to leave the Japanese yen and flood over to the AUD. From there, the shorting of JPY just carried on and on. We had some news come out, like the Tertiary Industry Activity, it was predicted to be negative, it wasn't as negative as forecasted, but the end of the day it is still slower growth which pushed the price even further down. The unemployment rate increased right at the end of the month. As you can see that the price started to push back in and the news might start flipping to show more strength into the Japanese yen compared to what we had.
We did see also the pound take a bit of a hit as well as the euro . The euro was a very interesting one as it's reacted with how the whole Russia and Ukraine, scenario is unfolding. Keep an eye on that as we proceed with peace talks, making progress supposedly. We might see a volatility coming through these currencies, but overall I have a bearish sentiment moving into April, not too sure how well that's going to hold up in the long run.
And finally, looking at the Swiss franc paired against the US dollar , didn't really make much progress. It was very weak at the start of the month or maybe the US dollar was just wrong. But you can see it moves quite nicely, then we hit the mid point, it's just pulled back into almost where we've opened leaving a very tall top wick on USDCHF . It'll be interesting to see on where we progress from here. Only losing about 0.63% to the US dollar .
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