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除非特朗普推迟财政刺激,否则美元长期升势将终结—巴克莱

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巴克莱指出,美元的长期升势面临寿终正寝的风险,除非特朗普推出财政刺激政策。

美元继续挣扎,成为G10货币中今年表现第二差的货币。市场意识到特朗普的税改和支出计划可能仅是梦想,打压美元

巴克莱资本驻纽约货币策略师Aroop Chatterjee,“未来数月美国财政政策将成为美元最重要的驱动力。若没有包括税改在内的大规模政策刺激,我们认为持续了数年的美元升势将接近尾声。”

此前美元调整的初期伴随着 资本的边际产量(marginal product of capital)的下降,不过实际利差、相对产出缺口和贸易条件的改变也会产生重要影响。

若美国温和减税,则美元实际有效汇率指数(REER)可能接近顶部;

除非特朗普推迟财政刺激,否则美元长期升势将终结—巴克莱

(来源:FXStreet)

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