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新西兰第一季度CPI季率和年率将分别上升0.9%和2.1%—德意志银行

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新西兰第一季度CPI季率和年率将分别上升0.9%和2.1%—德意志银行

FXStreet-德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家Phil O'Donaghoe预计新西兰第一季度CPI季率和年率分别上升0.9%和2.1%,虽然远高于纽储行的预期,但主要受到波动性大的项目的影响。


我们预计纽储行的政策指引不会改变,预计新西兰第一季度CPI季率和年率分别上升0.9%和2.1%,这种预期远高于2月声明中的预期,分别为0.3%和1.5%。若CPI符合我们的预期,我们预计将影响纽储行。有两大关键理由:

通胀上升主要受到波动性因素的影响,如食品和燃料价格。我们预计未来几个季度这些项目价格将出现回落(受到新西兰北爱尔兰的恶劣洪水影响,食品价格短期内可能不走软。)

纽储行似乎将移除2月预期。3月23日现金利率重估中,该央行指出,总体的CPI将在未来12个月内发生变化。中期内通胀将重返目标区间中部。(来源:FXStreet)

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