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日央行或将再度尝试;美元/日元空头或将取胜 - 美银美林

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日央行或将再度尝试;美元/日元空头或将取胜 - 美银美林

美银美林对日央行和美联储的利率决议进行了分析,全文如下:

9月日央行利率决议上,预期日央行将再度出手,目的是提高通胀目标至2%。我们认为日央行将推出组合拳以加大货币宽松,提高日本央行的信用度。

但日央行需要防止最大的风险,即市场不理解其意图。分析师预期从日本央行评估货币政策的范围来看本次利率决议的结果将会是有效承认失败的可能性,相应缩减大规模量宽规模。尽管我们对日央行是否会这样做的可能性不确定,但我们认为日央行或将提供或多或少的货币政策支持。但这有个风险,即市场会误读这一举措,将其理解为暗中收紧,日央行将试图令市场理解其实现通胀目标的决心。

美元/日元空头或将取胜

日央行利率决议将早于美联储决议数小时。由于美联储或将维持利率不变,料日央行政策对市场的影响较大。我们维持本周日央行会议对日本温和利多的观点。(来源:SVSFX)


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