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澳新银行将国际现货黄金价格12个月目标价定为2100美元/盎司,随着新冠病毒疫苗即将问世,全球经济强劲复苏和风险资产上涨的可能性继续增强,可能会削弱黄金作为避险工具的吸引力,由于其强劲的防御特性,黄金传统上在经济疲弱时期表现强劲,不过这不会阻止金价目前的涨势; 黄金的主要驱动因素、实际利率和美元可能会在未来一年提供支撑,根据美联储对利率和通胀的预测,实际利率应会继续进入负值区间,而强劲的全球增长脉搏应该会使美元进一步走软; 黄金估值模型显示,假设美国通胀率升至1.7%,美元指数跌至90,30年期债券收益率稳定在1.6%左右,明年黄金价格应在2100美元左右交易,不过短期内存在阻力,随着股市持续走强,投资者可能进一步撤出黄金ETF,转向股市,随后将0-3个月的目标降至1900美元,不过仍将12个月的目标价格保持在2100美元

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