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欧元区新冠疫情未对欧元兑美元或欧元加权贸易指数造成实质性影响,欧元兑美元在10月底及11月初曾迅速跌至近三个月低点1.16,在拉平疫情爆发曲线方面,欧元区取得的进展要比美国大得多,这一进展在未来几周将增长势头拉回有利于欧元的位置; 欧元区及美国每百万新增病例的一个月变化在11月达到峰值,超过300例,但自此以来,欧元区新增病例数量的增长已大幅放缓,而美国的新增病例数量没有出现任何实质性的放缓,虽然最近美国和欧元区爆发的疫情规模相似,但流动性在欧元区受到的打击要大得多,不过预计欧元区更成功地遏制疫情措施将带来更有意义的流动性反弹,在这种情况下,越来越多的美国县和州重新实施宵禁和关闭,因此美国的交通在未来几周可能会受到进一步打击; 虽然欧元兑美元已回升至区间高位,但未来几周仍有反弹空间,前提是流动性和活动的恢复与成功控制最新疫情的进展一致

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