The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed ahead of the US CPI print, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD mixed to a little firmer ahead of US CPI data

“The street is looking for a 0.1% rise in headline CPI and a 0.2% gain in core over the September month. The 12-month headline rate of inflation is expected to edge down to 2.3%, from 2.5% but core inflation over the year is expected to stick at 3.2%. Inflation trends are moderating but have yet to show the consistency of low (0.1/0.2%) m/m gains that would make policymakers comfortable with the idea that inflation is more fully beaten.”

“Note that some models reflect a modest upside risk to core CPI estimates for September. With the balance of risks favouring a further moderation in prices now, the Fed’s priority is gearing towards—cautious—policy relaxation. But slightly firmer core prices may give a further lift Treasury yields and the USD in the short run. Note swaps are pricing in 20bps of easing risk for the Fed’s November meeting.”