FPG: The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and gold has made a profit to close. Latest market news: 1. [The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week] This week is the first “super central bank week” this year. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points again, which has been included in 99.9% of the market. Comment: The focus of future attention is whether the Federal Reserve, like the Bank of Canada, will have more than expected interest rate adjustments at this meeting. 2. [A new round of sanctions on Russian energy will begin on February 5] A new round of Western sanctions on Russian energy will begin on February 5, when a new price cap will be imposed on Russia’s exported refined oil, including diesel. After consultation, EU member states agreed to limit the export price of Russian diesel to between $100 and $110 per barrel. Comment: The risk of natural gas supply in Europe is decreasing, while Western countries almost support the supply of offensive weapons to Ukraine, which means that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is becoming more and more dangerous. What’s terrible is that there is no room for negotiation at present. 3. [Russia’s maritime crude oil exports rose to the highest level in 9 months] Last week, Russia’s maritime crude oil exports soared to a single-weekly high since April last year, indicating that the country has overcome the initial blow caused by European sanctions on its crude oil exports. According to the data, in the week ending January 13, Russian crude oil exports increased by 876,000 barrels per day to 3.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 30%, the highest weekly level since April this year. Among them, exports of crude oil in the Baltic Sea increased by 626,000 barrels compared with the previous week, and exports from Black Sea and Pacific ports also increased. Comment: Due to the loss of Europe’s largest export market, Russia had to sell discounted crude oil to Asian customers such as India, which made Ural crude oil less than half of the global benchmark crude oil Brent. Relevant statistics show that the amount of crude oil on ships going to India and other countries has jumped to 2.84 million barrels per day, and these customers are currently the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. 4. [Russia prohibits the export of oil to buyers who abide by the upper limit of Western oil prices] Cailian News Agency, January 31, according to a decree issued on Monday, the Russian government prohibits the sale of oil to any buyer who abides by the price limit mechanism introduced by Western countries. Enterprises must pay close attention to export contracts to ensure that there is no mention of oil price caps in the wording, and ensure that the price limit mechanism is not used by the counterparty when reselling to end customers. According to this decree, the customs department of the Russian Federation has the right to ban oil exports in case of violation. Comments: The future trend of crude oil is becoming more and more complex, and it may show an increasing trend of shocks. 5. [France and the Netherlands agree on dealing with the U.S. Inflation Cut Bill] Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said after meeting with French President Macron that France and the Netherlands are consistent in dealing with the U.S. Inflation Cut Act. Comments: The Inflation Cuts Act is simply a high subsidy for enterprises and restrictions on foreign imports, but it should be noted that the boss and the second brother compete, and the third brother will die. 6. [Germany’s GDP unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter] Data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on Monday local time showed that the initial GDP value of Germany fell by 0.2% month-on-month after the fourth quarter adjustment, which was not as expected by the market. This shows that Europe’s largest economy may be in recession due to the impact of the Russia-Uzbek conflict. Comment: The Russian-Uzbekish conflict has dragged down Germany’s recovery, and various risk events may continue to break out. 7. [The European Union will relax tax credit restrictions in response to the green subsidy bill of the United States] On January 30, a draft European Union plan shows that the European Commission will further relax regulations to support investment in new production facilities in the green industry, including the provision of tax incentives. Comments: The United States and the European Union have launched a green subsidy competition. Nanshi, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: The first Fed’s resolution to raise interest rates at the beginning of 2023 will be the first appeared in the early morning of Thursday. As inflation continues to decline, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, with a probability of nearly 99.9%. Against this background, there is a mild correction of gold. According to the position data of retail investors and bankers, it is currently a moderate profit rebound of gold. However, from the overall trend, gold is still in the long trend, coupled with the Russo-Ukrainian War, which has exacerbated concerns about the global economic recession, so the decline of gold is still limited. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: In terms of the pound, the Bank of England will face a difficult decision on Thursday, because policymakers are worried about both the potential harm of excessive austerity and the still very high inflation. The British labor market is still tight, and core inflation is higher than expected, which requires the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, but the Monetary Policy Committee is obviously worried about the risk of “excessive interest rate hikes”. The pound has been in a range consolidation trend recently. This price balance may be broken by sudden news or market sentiment at any time. Later, you should pay attention to the soar or plunge that may be brought at any time. Today’s trading is recommended to focus on multiple orders, looking at target 1.24. After falling below 1.233, the direction was changed to short. Dave, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: Crude oil: Given the uncertainty of the recovery in oil demand and the global economic slowdown, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Oversight Committee (JMMC) is unlikely to recommend a change in production policy at its meeting on Wednesday. The next ministerial meeting of OPEC+ is scheduled to be held in June 2023. However, if JMMC believes that a policy change is needed, he has the right to convene a plenary meeting. At present, the crude oil inventory of the OECD continues to be below the five-year average. On the other hand, Russia’s shipping oil exports seem to be rising. There are two possible explanations: Russia is exporting more oil by sea after Germany and Poland almost stopped importing Russian pipeline oil, and Russia is also concerned about the upcoming ban on fuel procurement imposed by the European Union. In the week ending January 27, Russian crude oil exports rebounded, recovering most of the losses of the previous week. The daily export volume of oil increased by 480,000 barrels to 3.6 million barrels, an increase of 16%. Shipments from the Baltic Sea and Pacific ports increased by 310,000 barrels/day over the previous week. Today’s intraday trading strategy is much. Lower support 76.7 Look at target 80 The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex