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今天外汇需要关注的3个重点 1、10月PPI增幅的低于预期有望成为通胀下行的另一个证据。12月美联储利率决议前,CPI和PPI的下降正逐步降低未来通胀数据的不确定性,12月利率决议加息50个基点的概率从80.6%上升至85.4%,放缓加息步伐的预期得到进一步巩固。PPI数据公布后,隐含美联储利率路径(白色虚线)出现了下移。 2、欧元临近1.0435附近的关键阻力,如果美元出现抛售,将进一步推动欧元上行,测试1.0800-1.1100阻力。另一方面,硬着陆的担忧加剧可能带来的风险资产抛售,这将引发对美元的新一轮避险买盘,成为欧元的下行风险。 3、外部和内部因素的综合影响可能使英镑在明年年初陷入困境。美元的动向对英镑的波动起了突出的贡献作用,在英国经济增长受到房地产风险影响的情况下,道明证券预计英美利差还将继续扩大,并继续对英镑持看跌态度。

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