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#XAU/USD# 2004年至2006年,美联储加息17次,最终的结果是将联邦基金利率从1%提高到5.25%,以抑制通胀,并为过热的经济降温。当时商业银行将利率上调至8.25%,这是企业借入资金的实际成本。 要想有效地将通胀率从目前的8.5%降至约2%的可接受目标,2.5%的利率只会产生微弱而不温不火的效果。经济学家一致认为,美联储在加息方面表现疲软,他们认为,如果通胀有希望降至2%或3%,联邦基金利率至少需要保持在4.5%。 面对通胀肆虐,各国央行可能会坚持紧缩路线,因此全球债券市场的抛售还在继续。由此导致的美债收益率飙升对美元也是一个好兆头,同时打压了无息黄金。 最近美元的上涨是由美联储的鹰派言论引发的,因为他们继续支持限制性货币政策,直到他们确信通胀已经下降。

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