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美国国债持续上涨令人始料不及; ①债券市场的最新一轮涨势除了令华尔街的交易员和策略师们倍感不安之外,甚至令那些行动敏捷的资金也措手不及。对冲基金数周来一直在增加对较长期美国国债的看空押注,期待随着数据显示经济复苏,再通胀交易有望回到正轨; ②事与愿违,美国债券却出现飙升,10年期美国国债收益率周一跌至2月份以来最低水平。该收益率有望连续第四个月下降,这将是新冠疫情爆发以来的首次。美国国债表现出的这种韧性令人吃惊,因为在经济扩张和通胀上升的环境中,国债通常会遭到抛售。最新的数据显示美国消费物价在快速上升,零售销售也强于预期,但是由于新增冠状病毒感染病例增加,以及事实证明经济重启进程不均衡,国债收益率一直在下降,令许多华尔街机构押错了方向; ③市场策略师Robert Tipp表示,市场似乎看得更远,并认为最终将回到通胀和增长均受到遏制的状态。我相信我们已经看到了这个周期的收益率峰值,随着长期牛市的恢复,我认为通过做空债券来赚钱会很困难

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